2018 Academy Awards Winners: Our Completely Un-Scientific Predictions

Note From Tongal: "2018 Academy Awards Winners: Our Completely Un-Scientific Predictions” is part of a series of Tongal Community-written blog posts that were originally sourced in the In Your Own Words Tongal Blog Project. Read more Tongal Community-written posts here and stay tuned for more opportunities to Pitch a topic and write for the Tongal Blog!

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Get excited, because Tongies V is just around the corner! There’s only one problem: those lingering weeks beforehand. To help pass the time, I’m turning to something that I’ve always enjoyed but have never quite conquered: predicting the Academy Awards.

Sure, some years were better than others, but there has always been that one dark horse or upset that kept me from a perfect ballot. I’ve tried nearly every approach, but whether it was precursors, pundits or just my own gut, none of these usual strategies have ever done the trick. Well, it’s 2018, and I think it’s time to try something a little different.

This is why I’ve created eight new and not-so-typical Academy Award prediction strategies. These techniques, each in their own special way, were used to make this year’s Oscar picks. Once the actual winners have been announced this March 4th, we’ll come back and see which of these motley methods did the best job. In fewer words, I’m not using a strategy to pick the Oscars; I’m using the Oscars to pick a strategy.

For the most part, these scientifically apt methods were handled by assigning a single number to the nominees of each category. Also, the nominees were ordered alphabetically, exactly as they appeared on the Academy’s official website. This was to provide both consistency as well as a scapegoat for myself in the unlikely event that every single approach is an abject failure.

It’s going to be a crapshoot (one of them, anyway), but maybe, just maybe, we’ll finally discover a dependable, not-at-all-specious formula for perennial Oscar pool glory.

Let’s see what they picked!

Method I - Go Fetch

For this experiment, I bought three cans of tennis balls and labeled each of them one-through-nine. Then, depending on the category, I threw either five or nine of them for my sister-in-law’s half-pitbull/half-Pomeranian to go fetch. Each category’s pick was then determined by whichever numbered ball the dog retrieved. I felt it was important to mention the dog’s pedigree, just in case this method proves to be successful and everyone needs to know precisely what kind of breed to use in the future.

Best Picture: Lady Bird

Best Director: Christopher Nolan

Best Actor: Denzel Washington

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Mudbound

Method II - Dartboard

At a local dive bar, I assigned nominees to various sections of a typical dartboard. To keep better track of where the darts landed, I went to a printing shop to have some nice overlays created for each category. Sure, the bar’s patrons would probably assume that I had some ubiquitous grudge against every single nominee, but it was a small price to pay for organization. Then, I got the overlays back from the printer and... just wow! All I can say is the glossy finish was truly worth the extra twenty dollars. In fact, these overlays had turned out so beautifully, I couldn’t bring myself to throw darts at them.

Best Picture: The Shape of Water

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro

Best Actor: Denzel Washington

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer Best 

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer 

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay: Logan

Method III - Twin Peaks

Somewhat borrowing from the first season of David Lynch’s Twin Peaks, I went outside and, from exactly thirty yards away, threw the tennis balls from Method I at a row of nominee-assigned cups. A friend suggested that I should have instead done something less obscure, such as beer pong, but that didn’t interest me. I wanted to focus on nuanced, avant-garde Oscar- picking methods, like throwing chewed-up tennis balls at plastic Star Wars cups.

Best Picture: Darkest Hour

Best Director: Christopher Nolan

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actress: Meryl Streep

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer 

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer 

Best Original Screenplay: Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay: Mudbound

Method IV - Beer Pong

Well, it was a Friday...

Best Picture: Phantom Thread

Best Director: Christopher Nolan

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer

Best Supporting Actress: Lesley Manville

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Logan

Method V - Siri

Not only can she play music, make appointments and concern Elon Musk, Siri can also pick random numbers. Let’s see what she predicted.

Best Picture: Phantom Thread

Best Director: Greta Gerwig

Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney

Best Original Screenplay: Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist

Method VI - Rolling Dice

This time, I went with something a little easier. For each category, I rolled a standard, six-sided die. In the event that I rolled a number higher than a five, I would simply repeat the process. As for Best Picture, I used two dice. Speaking of which, it was during this part of the experiment that I realized just how unlikely it would be to roll a one with multiple dice. Still a little tipsy from Method IV, the best solution at the time was to just let the first nominee sit this one out. In retrospect, I now realize that not only are nine-sided die widely available, but that I could have also very easily just moved every nominee up by one number. Oh, well... I can’t just redo the experiment, as it wouldn’t be fair to the other nominees.

Best Picture: Lady Bird

Best Director: Greta Gerwig

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Mudbound

Method VII - Alexa

To remain objective, I decided it was important to allow the other assistants an opportunity to chime in. One small problem: I do not own an Echo. Though purchasing one did cross my mind, I had already exhausted my budget on the exquisite dartboard overlays that are now framed on my mantle. As a frugal compromise, I did the next best thing: call random people named Alexa and ask them to pick the numbers. I would have repeated this process for other assistants, but couldn’t find anybody in the White Pages named Google.

Best Picture: Get Out

Best Director: Jordan Peele

Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Actress: Margot Robbie

Best Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson 

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer 

Best Original Screenplay: Get Out

Best Adapted Screenplay: Logan

Method VIII - THAT Song

In this slightly more time-consuming experiment, I listened to the same contemporary radio station for exactly nine hours and checked off the number of times Shape of You by Ed Sheeran was played. For each category, I listened for one hour, excluding Best Picture, where I listened for two. Now, I want to be clear as Crystal Pepsi on one thing: This particular experiment was purely to cover the widest gamut of Oscar-picking avenues possible and had nothing to do with me enjoying this song. Not that it’s a horrible song... or that the melody doesn’t tether itself to one’s ear canal... I did this for science!

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Director: Jordan Peele

Best Actor: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Disaster Artist

So, there you have it: eight brand new and strictly scientific ways to predict the Oscars. Will the winner be the dartboard? Will it be Siri? Will this whole thing be an enormous waste of time? Let’s find out together on March 4th!

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go listen to... something other than Shape of You. 

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Planning to play along and guess the winners at your own Oscars party? Use our Tongal-ified Nominee Ballot to make your guesses!