The recent turmoil in the stock market is, to say the least, no fun (for most of us). And part of what makes it so difficult is the uncertainty of it all: is it time to call your financial advisor and make a move? Which move? Will this be the one time you actually invest more when the market is down? Or…what is it they say about “trying to catch a falling knife??”
Like most of us you’ll probably sit tight – as likely from frightened paralysis as from any sort of inner calm.
This may be one of these rare occasions where our day-jobs as marketers can give us some respite from chaos and tumult, because unlike the Dow Jones, the numbers in our business -- the BIG ones – have been following the same pattern for years now, and the only real change is that they’re gaining momentum:
Television and cable viewership numbers are tumbling, and digital continues to grow on the back of the mobile boom -- and also on desktops. We’ve given the name “Skyfall” to this phenomenon, because that’s what it feels like when the media landscape that’s been pretty consistent for about 50 years starts to disappear before our very eyes.
But there’s no doubt that the people have spoken…are speaking, and they’re showing no signs whatsoever of quieting down. We wrote about this huge migration of eyes, hearts and minds it in our first Skyfall article; followed up recently with a piece about Netflix’ incredible viewership gains; even talked about brands that are taking media into their own hands…
But the articles & analysis keep coming from all quarters, so we thought we’d provide another update and share again our urgent sense that network television & cable are stocks your marketing department needs to be shorting -- while you start investing serious time and resources to find your voice and your audience in a (completely new) digital landscape.
TV is Only Falling Faster
Let’s kick things right off with a money quote in a recent piece from Mediapost – “Millennials Flee Traditional TV”:
“Looking at live program plus seven days of time-shifted viewing from July 2014 to June 2015, viewership at 11 TV networks groups witnessed young 18-34 viewers taking the biggest hit -- down 14% -- 1.2 million fewer viewers, according to Moffett Nathanson Research.”
Right in the old 18-34 breadbasket. Hang on though, it gets worse -- the decline was general:
“After 18-34 viewers, teens 12-17 declined the most -- off 16% (437,000), followed by kids 2-11, which were down 10% (502,000). In terms of the absolute number of viewers, 35-49 viewers declined by the second-highest amount -- 736,000 or 7%. Viewers 50 and older gave up 504,000, down 2%.”
Okay…stats are stats, sure – but when two year olds are leaving the ship, that’s…well, that’s a sign. Actually it’s more than a sign: that’s a thing.
Cable Cutting
Business Insider recently offered an entire article about Cable’s troubles devoted to one chart -- the title suggests the gory details: “This is The Scariest Chart in The History of Cable TV.”
The chart shows Cable “going negative” – with falling subscriber numbers overall -- for the first time in their history. Business Insider explains:
“Over the past five years, the percent of households with cable subscriptions has been falling. But with year-over-year subscribers still seeing growth, however modest, cable companies were still able to look past what some had seen as a coming cord-cutting apocalypse. …Now, that is a reality.”
From the same article -- Pacific Crest, the Wall Street research firm that concocted “the scariest chart in cable history,” estimated subscriptions falling by 463,000 in the 2nd quarter of 2015 – sharply down-trending from a loss of “only” 141,000 in the same quarter last year. Which is probably why Business Insider characterized these recent losses as “cable subscriptions falling off a cliff.”
And of course the Wall Street Journal itself is there to remind us that the stock market has noticed as well.
So where are these TV and Cable viewers going? Well, we know they’re not getting library cards…
Digital Is Rising Anywhere…Even Desktops
If your instinctive response to “where are viewers going?” is mo-bile – you’re right. (And sure, we pronounce it like Roger Daltrey too.) But the truth is, viewers are consuming more and more digital media anyway they can. Yep, the migration to digital access is so pronounced, even desktops are gaining in this space. So don’t throw away that old Gateway just yet…
Not to be outdone by the chart-wielding folks at MediaPost, The Content Strategist offered up an article entitled “The Digital Media Boom In One Chart.”
Here’s the chart that tells the tale. Those blue guys are desktop viewers, and no, your eyes aren’t fooling you, even that bar is getting thicker too:
Note also the scale of this chart… “Millions of Minutes” – so what we’re talking about here is millions of millions… And though it’s fun to joke about the desktops hanging tough and getting a piece of the growth-action here, let’s make no mistake that mobile is the platform really going bonkers in this millions of millions business. As the article observes “Mobile consumption is up 90% in the last two years.”
90%? Okay...that’s a lot. Turns out all those eleven year olds with phones do actually know how to use them. (Lets not even talk about the two year olds okay?)
So of course it’s mobile that’s really pushing digital ad spends higher and higher. According to eMarketer, that spend is poised to cross the $100 billion threshold in 2016.
Draggin’ The Line
But…here’s where it gets weird. Again from the The Content Strategist:
“Meanwhile, despite digital media’s growth, digital ad spend will only account for 26.8 percent of total ad spend by 2019. TV may be losing attention minutes, but their ads still drive superior revenue.”
And as they conclude their article, they’re pretty much saying what we’re saying:
“Going forward, the biggest challenge for people who work in media is clear: How can they convert digital’s dominance into more revenue? Judging by all this data, they better figure it out fast.”
We’ve given you a lot of numbers to chew on. Before we engage with that other side of your brain we’ll give ourselves – and you – a well-deserved rest. But please stay tuned for part two of this article, where we’ll be bringing you a series of solid, immediately applicable recommendations for doing exactly what The Content Strategist suggests you do:
Figure this stuff out…fast!
